February 2025

Imagine traveling over 5,000 km, from London to Tehran. Now, imagine that along this journey, there are 17,000 islands, over 13,000 of which are inhabited by more than 280 million people. People who speak over 700 languages. These numbers are just a few of the incredible records that define Indonesia, the country that holds the world title in size, biodiversity, and increasingly, its role on the global stage, positioning itself as one of the next great powers. A world of its own, remote and almost impossible to imagine, which has built its fortune from chaos. A universe of diversity that, to be truly understood, must be traversed, explored, and experienced. In a journey that, island by island, allows us to discover a hidden corner of Asia, a “last world” that is rapidly transforming before our eyes.

PAPUA It’s Different, Yet It’s One

In the southeast, nestled between the Indian and Pacific Oceans, lies the province of Papua, occupying the largest portion of the western half of the island of New Guinea. Papua is the largest and most ethnically varied province in Indonesia, home to over 270 native languages spoken solely within its borders. The languages here form a completely distinct linguistic world, separate from the Austronesian languages that dominate the rest of Indonesia.

To bridge communication across the hundreds of distinct ethnic groups in the region, Papuan Malay, a creole language, has evolved as a means of interaction between tribes. Much like a “lingua franca,” Papuan Malay facilitates communication, while Indonesian remains the official language of the country. The origins of Papuan Malay are still debated, what is clear is that long before the arrival of Indonesian, Papuan Malay had already been used. It’s these internal differences that make Papua the perfect starting point to begin understanding the country’s complexity, even though the diversity only deepens as one travels across the thousands of islands.

Heading 5,000 km northwest brings us to Aceh, a land of Malay Muslims whose features bear traces of Arab ancestry. Proudly calling their region “the veranda of Mecca,” the people of Aceh fiercely guard their cultural and religious identity. Though part of the same country, the inhabitants of Aceh and Papua are worlds apart: they eat different foods, worship different deities, play unique music, and belong to distinct ethnic groups.

Pancasila: harmonizing diversity

Indonesia is the fourth most populous country in the world, with 280 million inhabitants, accounting for 3.51% of the global population (Worldometers). Spanning 1.9 million square kilometers, it is the largest archipelagic nation, stretching across the globe’s circumference, between Asia and Oceania. This vast expanse has given rise to numerous ethnic and linguistic groups, making Indonesia the most linguistically diverse country, second only to Papua New Guinea (World Economic Forum).

The Garuda Pancasila, a legendary mythological bird symbolizing strength, courage, and sovereignty, serves as Indonesia’s national emblem. Gripped in its talons is a scroll that—when examined closely—reveals the inscription Bhinneka Tunggal Ika, which translates to “It is different, [yet] it is one.” This national motto can be found across various symbols of the nation: the presidential palace, currency, flags, schools, and even streets. These three simple words encapsulate the country’s immense diversity, reflecting a place that is more a universe than a single nation.

This principle has been fundamental to Indonesia’s democratic evolution, emphasizing five key pillars: monotheism, humanity and justice, deliberative democracy, social justice, and the unity of the Indonesian people

The Indonesian archipelago is home to over 1,300 ethnic groups, many of which, protected by seas and mountains, have preserved their ancient characteristics due to limited outside influence. The largest ethnic groups include the Javanese (40.1%), Sundanese (15.5%), Malay (3.7%), Batak (3.6%), and Madurese (3.0%) (Monitor Pluralism). Since gaining independence, the Indonesian government has worked diligently to protect and celebrate this rich diversity, drawing inspiration from the philosophical principle of Pancasila enshrined in the constitution. This principle has been fundamental to Indonesia’s democratic evolution, emphasizing five key pillars: monotheism, humanity and justice, deliberative democracy, social justice, and the unity of the Indonesian people – transcending ethnic, religious, and linguistic differences.

Yet, despite this unifying force, Indonesia’s multicultural identity presents ongoing challenges. The rise of separatist movements and the increasing radicalization of civil society have sparked concerns. With over 86% of the population adhering to Islam, Indonesia is the world’s largest Muslim-majority nation (Statista). Although Islam in Indonesia has traditionally been moderate and syncretic, recent years have seen the emergence of more conservative voices. The 212 Movement, which opposes the religious tolerance enshrined in Indonesia’s constitution, is one such example. The shift toward conservatism has gained momentum since the fall of Suharto’s regime in 1998, giving rise to extreme voices, particularly with the growing influence of Salafism and preachers educated in Arab countries.

This growing conservatism is most evident among younger generations. Surveys show that young Indonesians, particularly those aged 14 to 29, tend to hold more conservative views than their elders (The Conversation). Movements such as Indonesia Tanpa Pacaran (Indonesia Without Dating), which promotes premarital chastity and early marriages, have gained traction. Amplified by social media, these movements have drawn large followings, with influencers advocating for these values to millions of people. In 2018, the movement boasted over 600,000 paid members. The rise of conservative views is mirrored in political changes, including the passing of a controversial new penal code in December 2022, which criminalizes premarital sex and cohabitation. This shift toward stricter social norms has drawn criticism both domestically and internationally. 

A unifying force

Amidst this diversity, Bahasa Indonesia plays a pivotal role in uniting the nation. Adopted as the national language upon independence in 1945, it was carefully chosen to bridge communication across the archipelago’s many populations. Rooted in Malay, Bahasa Indonesia has absorbed elements from Dutch, Arabic, Portuguese, and other languages, reflecting Indonesia’s complex history and global interactions. Words like “meja” (table) and “sepeda” (bicycle) are borrowed from Dutch, while “salat” (prayer) and “bazar” (market) come from Arabic. This fusion of linguistic influences offers a fascinating insight into Indonesia’s history of trade, colonization, and cultural interaction.

As the official language of government, education, media, and business, it fosters national cohesion, allowing people from various ethnic backgrounds to communicate and connect. Though 94% of Indonesians speak Bahasa Indonesia, fewer use it as their first language, with many continuing to speak their regional tongues in daily life. In fact, many of the more than 700 languages are thriving and are the most primarily spoken languages, such as Javanese (31.8%), Sundanese (14.5%), Madurese (3.7%) (Translators Without Borders). These regional languages each have unique grammar and vocabulary, distinct from Bahasa Indonesia, contributing to the country’s vibrant linguistic landscape. Beyond spoken languages, Indonesia’s diversity extends to its writing systems, with various ethnic groups using their own scripts, such as Javanese, Batak, and Bugis. 

Words like “meja” (table) and “sepeda” (bicycle) are borrowed from Dutch, while “salat” (prayer) and “bazar” (market) come from Arabic.

Thus, code-switching, or alternating between languages based on context, is common in Indonesia. It’s not unusual to hear someone switch from their native tongue to Bahasa Indonesia or even English. Furthermore, Bahasa Indonesia has incorporated slang, much of which has been popularized by the internet. Some slang terms have become widely understood across the nation, further unifying the country with shared expressions. For example, “gue” (I) and “lo” (you) are informal terms that have become part of everyday language. As digital connectivity spreads, these slang words continue to strengthen national cohesion (Indonesia – The wandering whispering on Imminent).

The success of Bahasa Indonesia is undeniable. With over 300 million speakers, it ranks as the 11th most spoken language in the world (Ethnologue) and it has been one of the fastest growing languages in the world over the past 50 years (Medium). Indonesian is much easier to learn than English, French, Hindi, or Thai. In fact, it ranks among the least challenging languages to learn. What makes it so accessible is its straightforward pronunciation, devoid of tones or intricate phonology.

Source: Ethnologue

BALI A Fragile Path to Growth

Bali is the most cheerful face of Indonesia, probably the most famous island in the archipelago. Renowned for its crystal-clear beaches, lush greenery, and Hindu temples with unexpected and extraordinary shapes, it is today the preferred destination for those seeking God or, more simply, themselves. The island’s main attraction lies in the opportunity to connect with a unique spirituality. In fact, in a country where Hindus represent only 1.8% of the population, 87% of the population in Bali follows Balinese Hinduism (Bali.com), making the island an exceptional cultural enclave. 

From the onset of modern tourism, Bali was seen as a hippie oasis, a mystical corner that perfectly aligned with the emerging counterculture in the United States. In the 1960s, when tourism began to take root on the island, its transcendent atmosphere attracted an increasing number of travelers and over the decades the island became the capital of the New Age movement.

Over time, Bali has become an integral part of an expanding economy. Despite being a small island compared to others, its GDP grew significantly thanks to tourism, which contributed 3.69% to the national GDP in 2019 (BPS Statistics Indonesia), highlighting its economic importance for Indonesia. However, the reliance on tourism revealed its fragility during the pandemic when the island’s GDP collapsed with the closing of borders. For Bali, as for all of Indonesia, the challenge is to sustain growth through innovation and digital transformation, reducing reliance on the more vulnerable sectors.

The Past’s Footprint on the Indonesian Economy 

Indonesia, with its unique combination of volcanic ash and sea air, has been a crossroads of trade and cultures for centuries. Hindus and Buddhists were among the first to settle on these lands, attracted by the ideal conditions for cultivating spices. They were followed by Arabs, Chinese traders, and from the 1600s, the Dutch, who turned the archipelago into their richest colony. In the 17th century, Dutch colonizers built an empire based on tobacco and tea monopolies, but also on extracting the natural resources that Indonesia’s subsoil abundantly offered.

Even today, Indonesia is the world’s giant in nickel production and dominates the global gold market with the largest mine on the planet (Bloomberg) Additionally, it is the largest extractor of bauxite, copper, oil, natural gas, and coal. Even the independence gained in 1945 didn’t immediately break the socio-economic chains of colonial domination, nor did it allow the country to redesign its economic structure autonomously. Sukarno, the first president of the young nation and a symbol of anti-colonialism, undertook the bold initiative of nationalizing colonial industries. However, the economy remained as fragile as a sandcastle.

Indonesia

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From Reformasi toward the world’s top 20 economies

Since 1998 and the end of Suharto’s regime, Indonesians have embarked on the path of Reformasi, moving the country toward a presidential democratic system.

In this new era, Indonesia has seen a rebirth under the leadership of Joko Widodo. Also known as Jokowi, he is hailed as the “most popular elected leader in the world,” and under him, Indonesia has breathed new life, becoming the third-largest democracy in Southeast Asia. This new political climate has spurred a growing economy, fueled by a young and dynamic population, with 52% of citizens under 30 (British Council). In fact, under his leadership, Indonesia has maintained stable economic growth of 5%, reaching a GDP of $1.37 trillion in 2023 (World Bank).

Jokowi marked a significant turning point with his “Golden Indonesia Vision 2045,” launched in 2019, with the ambitious goal of consolidating Indonesia’s role among the world’s leading economies. His policies, known as Jokowinomics, have led to extraordinary infrastructure development, expanded the metallurgical and mining sectors, and opened the door to foreign investments. The infrastructure budget, which was under $10 billion in 2014, has risen to over $27 billion in 2024 (Statista), enhancing connections across the vast archipelago.

One of Jokowi’s most strategic policies has been the introduction of “downstreaming” measures, which have transformed raw mineral resources into finished products, rather than exporting them in raw form. Thus, Indonesia has positioned itself as a key global player, stable among the world’s top 20 economies, with projections seeing it among the top 10 by 2030 and among the top 5 by 2050 (World Bank).

Indonesia is a leading producer of rice, palm oil, tea, and tobacco. Despite agriculture and manufacturing collectively accounting for over 60% of Indonesia’s exports (Trading Economics), the pandemic underscored the limitations of an economic model overly dependent on raw material exports and intensive environmental resource exploitation. 

In parallel, Indonesia has positioned itself as a global leader in the production of essential minerals. It is the world’s top producer of nickel, the second-largest producer of tin, and the fourth-largest producer of bauxite—resources vital for the rapidly expanding electric vehicle (EV) industry (CSIS). With an ambitious goal of manufacturing 600,000 electric vehicles by 2030, Indonesia is attracting major automakers like Toyota, BYD, and Hyundai, all of which have already invested billions into local production (AEDS). However, Indonesia’s drive to become a major EV player faces significant competition: Thailand leads the Southeast Asian EV market, while emerging economies such as Vietnam and Malaysia offer lower production costs, posing a challenge for Indonesia’s manufacturing ambitions.

Source: Journal Forum Analisis Statistik (2021)

However, there are still significant opportunities to diversify the economy. Indonesia’s large and rapidly growing population fuels a dynamic consumer market. Alongside this, the services sector is expanding, with tourism contributing 4.1% to the national GDP. Yet, Indonesia’s future prospects are increasingly tied to its digital economy. With 79.5% of the population connected to the internet, the country is embracing technology at an accelerating pace. This growing tech-savviness is propelling the expansion of e-commerce, where platforms like Gojek, Tokopedia, Scope, and Lazada dominate the market. As a result, the digital economy is set to surpass $130 billion by the end of 2025, presenting a promising avenue for growth (International Trade Administration). To support this growth, Indonesia is investing heavily in technological development and digital infrastructure. The “Making Indonesia 4.0” initiative is transforming the country into a regional leader in digitalization, with goals including the creation of 100 smart cities by 2030 and a national strategy for AI, which also involves building its own data centers. Furthermore, the spread of 5G networks is further accelerating the country’s potential, which boasts over 21 million digital consumers and 13 unicorn startups.

KALIMANTAN A Brand New Capital

The Indonesian archipelago boasts many records, but one stands out: Jakarta will be the first capital in the world to disappear due to climate change by 2050. The Indonesian megacity sinks by 25 centimeters a year. And despite repeated government assurances, plans have already been made to relocate the capital to a new city on the island of Kalimantan. 

The causes of this catastrophe affecting the island of Java, the most populous in the world, are multiple, reflecting both climate change and uncontrolled urbanization that is profoundly transforming the country. In fact, with over 30 million residents, Jakarta has seen exponential population growth in the past sixty years, with a 1000% increase (World Bank). The speed and scale of this growth have put immense pressure on infrastructure and services: the government struggles to meet the basic needs of its residents. Additionally, during the rainy season, floods are a constant, worsened by an ever-shrinking rainforest that is making way for urban sprawl. 

In broader terms, Indonesia faces significant challenges in addressing climate change, as it is located on the Pacific Ring of Fire, between two tectonic plates, making it vulnerable to earthquakes and tsunamis. The extractive industries and rampant deforestation making room for urbanization and plantations of palm oil, tobacco, and coffee have made the country even more susceptible to flooding. Additionally, Indonesia is the world’s eighth-largest emitter of CO2, and its dependence on fossil fuels remains strong. In 2023, coal accounted for 40.5% of energy production, while renewable sources made up just 13.1% (CCPI).

The country’s forests could be a crucial resource in tackling the climate crisis, but they are among the most damaged by it. Since 1990, Indonesia has lost 25% of its forested areas, and biodiversity is now endangered in a country that harbors the second-largest variety of species in the world, after Brazil (University of Maryland).

Source: Data World Bank

Jakarta is the most striking example of the transformation the country will undergo due to climate change. For this reason, in 2022, President Joko Widodo signed a law to build a new capital on the island of Kalimantan, about 1200 kilometers east of Jakarta. Nusantara, the name chosen for the new city, evokes an ancient Javanese term meaning “other islands” and will rise in the heart of the forests by 2045. The project is not unique: Myanmar has already built the capital Naypyidaw, while South Korea has created Sejong City as an administrative hub to relieve pressure on Seoul. China is also building Xiong’an near Beijing, set to become the coordination center for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei economic zone.

Nusantara will be a “smart,” green, and sustainable city. The project envisions three-quarters of the area covered by forests (65%) and parks (10%). Government buildings made of glass and wood, with trees on rooftops, will rise in a sort of national park, while wide event halls and raised walkways will traverse the landscape. Residents will be able to reach all major structures—homes, offices, and recreational spaces—in under ten minutes on foot. By 2045, the city will house nearly two million residents with a zero environmental impact.

In 2024, the first 17,000 civil servants will relocate to Nusantara, in skyscrapers still under construction. However, the project is not without criticism. Nusantara’s ambition to be a green and sustainable city clashes with the country’s ecological realities. Greenpeace has reported that since the project’s inception, 20,000 hectares of rainforest have been cleared to make way for construction sites (Greenpeace). Deforestation, combined with the irreversible damage to biodiversity, is one of the most critical aspects of the project. 

The new capital, with a total cost expected to be around 35 billion dollars, represents an opportunity to create new industries, stimulate employment, and attract international investment. The project aims to become an economic and technological hub, leveraging Kalimantan’s strategic location to facilitate trade and transport with other Asian regions. 

While Nusantara’s ambitious plans for technological and economic advancement have sparked much debate, there are alternative initiatives within Indonesia that focus on leveraging technology to preserve the country’s natural environment. One such project is exploring the use of AI to address the climate challenges faced by local communities, while simultaneously supporting forest conservation efforts across the nation.The project, “Fair Forward – Artificial Intelligence for All,” (Digital Global) aims to protect Indonesia’s valuable tropical rainforests by collecting and analyzing data to create large-scale carbon-rich maps. The initiative focuses on monitoring vital rainforests in Sumatra, Kalimantan, and West Papua, ensuring these ecosystems remain safeguarded for future generations. Given Indonesia’s rich linguistic diversity, the team is also working on developing tailored LLMs to support the communication needs of local communities. By collecting data in languages such as Minangkabau, Balinese, and Buginese, they aim to create AI models that directly benefit communities across the archipelago, providing crucial climate change information in local languages. This initiative not only contributes to environmental awareness but also helps preserve these languages from extinction.

JAVA Delicate Balance

Java, the heart of Indonesia, is not only the country’s most populous and developed island but also the epicenter of its political, economic, and diplomatic influence. Jakarta, the capital, is where vital decisions are made—shaping national policies and managing Indonesia’s relationships with the world. With its strategic location, dense population, and rapid growth, Java symbolizes the nation’s ambitions on the global stage, serving as the launchpad for Indonesia’s ascent to prominence. From this island, Indonesia navigates its partnerships with major global powers like the United States, China, and India, while playing a central role in regional alliances like ASEAN.

More than just an island, Java reflects Indonesia’s aspiration to become a key global player, its influence reaching far beyond its shores. The island’s centrality mirrors the nation’s path toward achieving greatness—a vision embodied in the symbol of the Garuda. The Garuda, the mythical bird representing Indonesia’s unity in diversity, transcends national identity. Its strength and ability to soar serve as a powerful metaphor for Indonesia’s own mission: to rise above challenges and achieve global prominence. Just as the Garuda embodies the country’s determination to soar, Java represents the foundation from which Indonesia will reach for greatness on the world stage.

Aware that it needs good allies to achieve its goals, Indonesia has always based its policy on a cautious and multilateral strategy, with particular emphasis on regional ties. As a founding member of ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations), Indonesia plays a crucial role in the association, which since 1967 has promoted cultural, political, and economic cooperation among its ten member states, creating a free trade zone.

The association is distinguished by two main aspects: on one hand, it aims to prevent its members from becoming vassals of China, and on the other, it seeks to counter the growing influence of the United States, striving to maintain a delicate balance between the two powers. In fact, while it is not a military alliance, ASEAN allows each member to pursue bilateral alliances. For example, the United States is allied with the Philippines and Thailand, while Vietnam and Cambodia are strengthening ties with China. 

The island’s centrality mirrors the nation’s path toward achieving greatness—a vision embodied in the symbol of the Garuda. The Garuda, the mythical bird representing Indonesia’s unity in diversity, transcends national identity. Its strength and ability to soar serve as a powerful metaphor for Indonesia’s own mission: to rise above challenges and achieve global prominence.

Imagining Indonesia without ASEAN is unthinkable, just as it would be difficult to conceive of ASEAN without Indonesia, which houses the headquarters, is the most populous country, and the most economically advanced. Additionally, Indonesia is the only ASEAN country to be part of the G20, where it defends a vision based on free trade, neutrality, pacifism, and pragmatism. However, its neutral policy allows it to emerge as an independent actor increasingly open to multipolar investments, recognizing the potential of its growing economy. 

Alongside the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) coming into effect, Indonesia has attracted strategic investments. Figures such as Elon Musk are backing the construction of a Tesla electric vehicle battery plant in Indonesia, while Apple is in discussions with the government about a major new project. Furthermore, Amazon has committed $5 billion to develop cloud infrastructure in the country. These investments underscore Indonesia’s growing importance as a digital and technological hub, driven by a thriving e-commerce and fintech landscape. With one of the largest consumer bases worldwide and rich natural resources critical for the green tech sector, Indonesia is drawing the attention of major global powers.

One of the most complex and tense relationships Indonesia faces is with China. Beijing claims sovereignty over nearly 90% of the South China Sea, a longstanding issue that has caused friction with Jakarta since the 1970s. In December 2021, China formally requested that Indonesia stop its gas and oil extraction in the region. Despite this, China remains one of Indonesia’s primary trading partners, and the two countries continue to negotiate agreements under China’s Belt and Road Initiative, the expansive infrastructure network promoted by Beijing.

A tangible example of this relationship is the recent inauguration of the Jakarta-Bandung high-speed railway in October 2023. This project, supported by China, has experienced delays and cost overruns but still represents a symbol of Indonesia’s infrastructural modernization. The “Whoosh” trains, which reach speeds of 350 km/h, connect Jakarta and Bandung in just 45 minutes, drastically reducing travel time. The railway is part of China’s New Silk Road project, with $3 billion earmarked for investment in Indonesia (CDR). With a $10 billion trade agreement with China and around $100 billion of total Chinese investments, Indonesia is charting its course to become a power by 2045, but risks partially losing its longstanding neutral policy.

A pivotal step in this direction was taken on January 6, when Brazil announced Indonesia’s entry into BRICS. This decision marks a significant shift in the country’s foreign policy, which had hesitated for a long time before joining. Joining BRICS represents a crucial moment for Indonesia, which aims to strengthen its economy and solidify its international role. Although this move may raise concerns among Western partners, particularly in Washington, where the Trump administration might take a more assertive stance, Jakarta appears determined to capitalize on the opportunities offered by membership in the bloc. In fact, for Indonesia, joining BRICS means consolidating ties with China and India, which account for 26% and 8%, respectively, of Indonesia’s exports (China Briefing). This membership could further strengthen economic ties with these two countries and foster greater cooperation with other members of the bloc.

Source: Statista

However, Indonesia will need to continue maintaining strong relations with the United States and European countries, with which it still has significant economic and political ties. In fact, at the same time, Jakarta continues to work toward joining OECD, demonstrating that its goal is not to align exclusively with one bloc, but rather to adopt a multi-alignment strategy that strengthens ties with both Western nations and those in the Global South.While Indonesia’s decision to join BRICS may shift the global balance, it shows the country’s readiness to adapt to changing dynamics with a pragmatic approach. By taking this step, Indonesia is strengthening its role as a regional mediator and emerging leader. With its growing potential, Indonesia is set to rise to the top of the world, carving out a more influential presence on the global stage. The big question, however, is whether it can reach those heights without taking a clearer stance in the global order.